Workshop on Influenza Risk Assessment and Risk Modeling:
Pandemic Influenza Threats and Beyond
November 7-9, 2012, Rome, Italy
I. Summary
This workshop builds upon the three previous community-based data synthesis, analysis and modeling of Highly
Pathogenic Avian Influenza workshops, which were coordinated by NIH, FAO and University of Oklahoma since 2009.
The focus of the workshop in November 2012 will bring together the experience and expertise arising from four
different projects or initiatives, namely NIH, EPT+, CDC and FLURISK and it results from the interest shared by
partners to better assess and model the potential risk of evolution and spread of pandemic influenza.
II. Objectives
1) Provide an opportunity for risk assessment and modeling professionals and influenza experts to
share their experiences, and results to date, in risk assessment and modeling approaches;
2) Identify challenges or limitations in the risk assessment and modeling approaches; and
3) Explore potential collaborations among risk assessment and modeling groups that will maximize
limited resources and improve the accuracy of pandemic influenza risk modeling in the future.
III. Scope
To achieve these objectives the workshop will include plenary presentations and discussion sessions focused on
three topics:
1) Reviewing current risk assessment and modeling approaches for influenza;
2) Identifying potential gaps in information needed to improve risk assessment and modeling; and
3) Assessing potential for combining different approaches or results of influenza risk assessments or
models to improve the outputs derived from each independent approach.
IV. Scientific Organizing Committee
Marco De Nardi (FLURISK and IZSVE), Marius Gilbert (Brussels Free University and EPT+), Scott Newman (FAO and
EPT+), Dirk Pfeiffer (RVC ), Timothy Robinson (FAO and EPT+), Susan Trock (US CDC) and Xiangming Xiao (University
of Oklahoma and NIH).
V. Venue
Malaysia Room (B 227), FAO Headquarters, Rome Italy
VI. Agenda
VII. Presentations
|
01) |
Timothy Robinson |
|
|
02) |
Background to the last 4 NIH Workshops |
Xiangming Xiao |
|
03) |
EPT+: objectives and core activities |
Scott Newman |
|
04) |
CDC: pandemic Influenza – risk assessment for the human population |
Ruben Donis |
|
05) |
Marco de Nardi |
|
|
06) |
USAID PREDICT program: an overview |
Parviez Hosseini |
|
07) |
Capital, value chains, politics and protein: |
Tony Barnett |
|
08) |
Methodological and structural changes in the global poultry sector: |
Ellen Silbergeld |
|
09) |
The contribution of genetic evolutionary analysis to epidemiological investigations on AI |
Giovanni Cattoli |
|
10) |
Following virus recombination and evolution: |
Ioannis Xenarios |
|
11) |
Suitability of viral molecular markers for pandemic influenza risk assessment: |
Sophie von Dobschuetz & Olga Muñoz |
|
12) |
EMPRES-i – Overview and applications for surveillance and molecular epidemiology |
Caryl Lockhart & Filip Claes |
|
13) |
Agro-ecology – livestock production systems |
Timothy Robinson |
|
14) |
Relating migratory tracks of wild birds with transmission of avian influenza |
John Takekawa |
|
15) |
Mapping and monitoring of paddy rice croplands and wetlands |
Xiangming Xiao |
|
16) |
Spatial epidemiology of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 in poultry: what have we learned? |
Marius Gilbert |
|
17) |
Modelling high risk areas of H5N1 transmission between domestic and wild birds in China |
Diann Prosser |
|
18) |
Parviez Hosseini |
|
|
19) |
Spatio-temporal dynamic of H5N1 in poultry, the case of Thailand during the 2004 epidemic |
Thomas van Boeckel |
|
20) |
Expanding modelling frameworks to integrate human behavioural factors |
|
|
21) |
A risk assessment framework for zoonotic influenza:
|
Andy Hill |
|
22) |
CDC (IRAT): Risk assessment tool for emerging influenza viruses |
Susan Trock |
VIII. Participants
IX. Summary
Report
X. Contact Person for Inquiries (please send any inquiries to all 3 people listed below)
Lindsey McCrickard (FAO)
lindsey.mccrickard@fao.org
Priya Markanday (FAO)
priya.markanday@fao.org
Melissa Scott (U. of Oklahoma)
msbrown@ou.edu